Do you believe that the more you invest, the greater the returns? This intuition can lead you to make bad decisions! Today we'll expose a common thinking error — the conjunction fallacy — and see how it affects our choices in different situations. Imagine a company promoting a new product with two options:
1. Advertise on TV.
2. Advertise on both TV and social media at the same time.
Many people might intuitively assume the second strategy reaches more viewers and is therefore more effective. However, this intuition ignores the complexity and cost of managing two channels, and may be less effective than concentrating resources on advertising through a single channel.
Imagine a content creator facing a choice:
1. Focus on uploading high-quality videos to YouTube.
2. Upload content to YouTube, TikTok, and Instagram at the same time.
Although the latter may seem capable of reaching a broader audience, managing multiple platforms actually takes more time and resources. This may lower the quality of the content and, in turn, reduce actual audience engagement.
The conjunction fallacy makes us think that “more is always better,” but that often isn’t the case. We should watch out for this thinking trap when making decisions in our daily lives and at work. By understanding and avoiding the conjunction fallacy, we can assess the actual benefits of different options more rationally and make choices that best fit our resources and goals. Remember, sometimes simplicity is the most effective strategy.
The key to avoiding the conjunction fallacy is to improve our understanding of probability and logic and develop a rigorous way of thinking. Learn basic probability concepts, work through your reasoning step by step, consider things separately, and finally use data as a basis. This can help us break through the barrier of the conjunction fallacy—when we think something is very likely but it actually isn’t, or think something is impossible when it actually is possible. Doing the calculations helps us see what’s really going on and makes it easier to choose.