The formula is simple: 1 represents a person’s starting point, 1.01 represents the rate of progress, 0.99 represents the rate of decline, and the exponent 365 represents 365 days. So the formula means that improving by 1% every day will make you nearly 38 times better after a year, while declining by 1% every day will leave you good for nothing. Netizens realized that the result of this formula really illustrates the importance of progress and decline, so it was reposted and discussed all over the internet, and eventually made its way into corporate training materials and the motivational walls of tutoring centers. It was put up everywhere along our path to personal growth. But when we take a calm look at the formula, it’s not hard to spot a basic flaw: people can’t guarantee constant progress. We’re always alternating between moving forward and slipping backward. Progress depends not only on hard work and perseverance, but also a great deal on our state of mind. When things are going well, we make quick progress; when we’re not feeling our best, progress slows, or we may even regress. This cycle repeats day after day, with its ups and downs month after month. After working hard for a year, we may find that we haven’t improved anywhere near 38 times over. And after a year of drifting along, we may find that we haven’t declined to just 0.03 either. So the idea of progressing every single day is wishful thinking. In reality, the results aren’t as inspiring or terrifying as the formula suggests. We need to understand that motivational formulas are logical fallacies dressed up in mathematical clothing. We only need to understand the reasoning behind the formula, not get hung up on its dubious results. Otherwise, fixating on 0.03 can make us excessively anxious, while fixating on 37.8 can make us lose confidence when our progress falls short of expectations. Neither can give us the motivation for sustained, healthy growth.
03 Study Notes / Mental Models