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03 Study Notes / Mental Models

09 10-10-10 Observer Mental Model

The general idea is that when making a decision, we need to imagine
how we will view the current decision in 10 minutes—will we regret it?
how we will think, 10 months later, about the decision we made 10 months ago,
and how we will view, 10 years later, the decision we made 10 years ago?

This mindset model can be applied to quick judgments, major decisions, predicting your own future, and so on. This three-timeframe way of thinking can magnify or shrink things within the broader sweep of history. For example, when arguing with a friend, you don't even need 10 months—most of the time you'll regret it within 10 minutes and feel it wasn't necessary, so there's really no need now to win a battle of words.

I think people with limited imagination may find it a little difficult to project their present selves into the future, because some people struggle to imagine what their future mindset and perspective might be like. Ten minutes is manageable; ten years is much harder. So if you find it difficult to imagine the future, you can look back instead. Think about a decision you made 10 minutes ago that you’re now glad you made—or regret. What about 10 months ago? Maybe a small decision had a big impact, or a major decision now seems like no big deal. So, looking back, can you find an answer to whether your present self should make this decision? Looking back may differ somewhat from projecting yourself into the future, but it’s a workable alternative if imagining the future feels impossible.

The “three 10s” observer mindset: the 10 is just a concept. The underlying idea is to step outside the situation and avoid letting your current emotions, environment, or other people’s words interfere with your judgment. By envisioning the future or reflecting on the past, you can detach yourself and look at the situation from a bird’s-eye view, which may help you make more rational, objective decisions.